Have the Arabs Forgotten Lebanon?

 The Geopolitical Complexity of Lebanon

Lebanon is small but immense in its political and geostrategic complexity. With a surface area barely half the size of the Argentine province of Tucumán and a population of 6 million, Lebanon remains a convergence point for regional and international interests. Amid a fragile internal situation and an unstable regional environment, the country faces constant challenges that go beyond its borders

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A Political System Based on Confessionalism

Lebanon has a unique political system based on confessionalism, where the main political positions are distributed according to religious sects. The president must be a Maronite Catholic, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the parliament a Shia Muslim. This structure aims to guarantee coexistence among the various religious communities, although it has also fueled sectarian tensions in times of crisis.

Hezbollah: Origins and Influence in Lebanese Politics

In this context, Hezbollah, a Shia organization with a strong presence in the south of the country, has played a crucial role. Hezbollah emerged as a direct result of the Israeli invasion and occupation of southern Lebanon, which lasted for 17 years. It was born in the most marginalized and impoverished areas of southern Lebanon, adopting a Shia ideology and gaining popularity by resisting the Israeli occupation. Today, Hezbollah is not only a significant military force but also a key player in Lebanon’s internal politics, which has generated tensions both internally and with external actors like Israel and the Sunni Arab countries.

The Impact of the Syrian War on Lebanon

The Lebanese crisis is also deeply influenced by the conflict in Syria, a neighboring country that has been embroiled in civil war for more than a decade. Lebanon has absorbed over a million Syrian refugees, placing unsustainable pressure on its economy and social fabric. Furthermore, the war in Syria has allowed foreign powers like Russia to intervene militarily, supporting the regime of Bashar al-Assad. This intervention has shifted the balance of power in the region, indirectly affecting Lebanon’s internal politics. With Russian support, Assad has managed to remain in power, but the conflict is far from resolved, keeping Lebanon in a state of constant instability.

The Palestinian Refugee Issue in Lebanon

Another key factor in Lebanon’s complex dynamic is the situation of Palestinian refugees, who have been in the country since the creation of Israel in 1948. Currently, around 200,000 Palestinians live in refugee camps under marginalized conditions. These camps, historically associated with the Palestinian cause, have also become a breeding ground for groups like Hamas, the Palestinian movement that governs Gaza. Hamas maintains a connection with part of the Palestinian population in Lebanon and has strengthened ties with Hezbollah due to their common enmity with Israel and their backing by Iran. Both groups have coordinated actions against Israel from Lebanese territory, adding another layer of complexity to the regional landscape.

The Conflict in Yemen and Its Regional Implications

In Yemen, the conflict also echoes in Lebanon. The Houthis, a Shia rebel group, are fighting against a Saudi-led coalition in a war that reflects the broader struggle for Shia and Sunni influence in the region. The Houthis do not view their struggle as merely an internal issue but as part of a resistance against Saudi hegemony. In their regional strategy, the Houthis have also sought to weaken Israel by attacking Israeli ships, expanding the conflict into an international dimension. This struggle, like the war in Syria, is part of a larger geopolitical chessboard in which Lebanon, through Hezbollah and its ties to Iran, is deeply implicated.

The Transformation of Arab Unity Around Israel

Throughout history, hostility toward Israel has served as a unifying factor among many Arab countries, particularly during the decades following the creation of the Israeli state and the subsequent conflicts, such as the Arab-Israeli wars. However, today, Arab unity around opposition to Israel has fragmented. With peace agreements like Egypt’s in 1979, Jordan’s in 1994, and the recent normalization of relations between several Arab states and Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, countries like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have shown that economic and geopolitical priorities can overcome old rivalries.

Arab Patience as a Long-Term Strategy

While some regional actors, like Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, continue to maintain a hostile stance toward Israel, other Arab states have opted for cooperation in strategic areas such as technology and security. This demonstrates that, although the Palestinian issue remains important, the dynamics between Israel and Arab countries have changed significantly in recent years.

In this scenario, several Arab countries, especially those in the Gulf, have reduced their direct involvement in Lebanon due to Hezbollah's growing influence and its alignment with Iran. However, it cannot be said that the Arabs have completely abandoned Lebanon. The Arab world has a historical relationship with patience. Though they are not as visible in the media, the Arabs know how to wait and operate from the shadows. Their "invisible world," referring to their ability to act over the long term, remains a powerful force in the region. For them, conflicts are not measured in terms of months or years but in centuries. They can resolve today a conflict that began ten centuries ago, as patience is part of their strategy.

Invitation to Explore "Middle East: The Truth"

         Finally, for those readers who wish to delve deeper into the topics covered in this article, such as the complex geopolitics of Lebanon, the role of Hezbollah, the influence of Iran, and the conflicts affecting the Middle East, I invite you to explore my book "Middle East: The Truth." In it, I analyze in detail the historical roots and contemporary dynamics that have shaped the region, providing a broader and deeper understanding of the challenges and realities that the Middle East faces today.

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